--Raw Prep Notes--

No because their entire military is underdeveloped

European arms production is in “deep shit” – Belgian ex-general

Following the Russian attack on Ukraine, Europe is preparing to transition into a war time economy, but it's been tripping on wires all day every day.

   3 reasons

1. Europe is over-reliant on America’s nuclear umbrella

a. Politico 2-8-2024: Reliance on US to provide security has been an excuse for decades of underinvestment in Europe’s arms production capacity

b. Biden administration has only made things worse -- BBC news: Biden admin approved military support worth around $60.1 billion to Ukraine [this further disincentivizes Europe to make contributions as it sends the message that Europe can just rely on US to cover everything up for them]

c. Radio Free Europe 7-8-2024: The EU has given Ukraine only half the 1 million shells they promised by March this year

Do you ever drink water at restaurants for free just to flex on Europeans? Yep, as an European not only do you need money for water at a restaurant, but the kind of money your country needs for arms right now is eye-watering.

2. They are unable to afford the cost

a. Emissary 3-8-2024: Europe not only does not have enough arms readily available, they also lack the factories and intelligence to build the arms i.e. they not only need to pay for materials, but also pay to build factories and hire people.

b. At the same time, The Atlantic 3-4-2024: Europe’s 2 largest national economies, Germany and UK, are nearing a recession

[This reflects the ever-widening gap for Europe to afford its need for arms]

c. Politico 2-8-2024: It's going to take years for Europe to build up the arms and ammunition production capacity needed to both aid Ukraine and reequip national forces

What do you do when you know when your abilities incapable? You gaslight yourself into believing you are not. And that’s exactly what Europe did.

3. Europe makes decisions based on overestimates of their capabilities

a. Radio Free Europe 7-8-2024: EU claims to have 3 times the actual production capacity (European commissioners claim the EU will produce 1.7 million artillery shells by the end of 2024)

b. The EU makes decisions based on massive overestimations of resources resulting in cyclical failure i.e. they put in less funding to arms development, gaslight themselves into believing they have enough arms, then put in even less funding to the system 

c. Suddenly they find out nothing is coming out of factories; cannot supply Ukraine or the NATO alliance

So it's clear Europe is far from meeting it's need for arms, and it's capacity is still ever-decreasing.